Options Portfolio Update – 2021-01-05
Current Long Options Swing Portfolio: $ACB, $DBX, $DGLY, $FISV, $ON, $SNAP, $SRNE
Newly Added: $FUV, $PINS, $SURF
Profits Taken: $DKS, $SIG
Maybe I was right about yesterday being more of a selling day as people deferred some of their profits to 2021. As nothing on the political or vaccine distribution issues have seen resolution, this seems to be the best explanation I can think of, and I’ll stick with it. J
Taking Profits:
I had two holdings that hit their targets today. Given that this is a small account, it is difficult to phase out of many holdings. In each of the cases below, I did sell all of my current holdings.
SIG
$SIG was one that I was watching closely, as my options were set to expire next week. I will be adding this back to the watchlist, as I believe that it is still in play. But, I set my target around a fib resistance line that would give me a 20% win, and it hit. Cannot go broke taking profit, and I’ll be looking for a re-entry.
DKS
I looked for an opportunity to get in at the entry point I wanted last week, but was never filled. It pulled back yesterday, and around its lows, I picked up my position. Today, it went on a nice little run and hit my target, which happened to also net about a 50% win. Again, I see this as having strength going forward and will look for another play on this.
New Holdings:
FUV
I pulled $FUV off the watchlist today. Though many tickers advanced today, this one was generally flat and provided for a good entry point at the brief moment where it matched its 2 week intra-session low.
After a huge run-up in the first half of November, the daily chart shows a retracement with a strong bounce and support off the 38.2% ext, and then coming back up to the 23.6% ret., along with the 50.0% ext., as good support for going forward. Another item of note to watch for the next few days is how it holds up against the 34-day EMA, which is now at the 50.0 ext.
The hourly chart further highlights the price action around 3 support/resistance levels. The 23.6 ret/50.0 ext providing for good support for the last 3 weeks, the 38.2 ret/61.8 etc. as a mid-channel support/resistance, and the 61.8 ret/78.6 ext as an upper channel resistance.
The 13.00 psychological barrier also gives an extra level of support for the bottom of the channel. From here, the mid-channel mark to watch is at about 14.40. How fluid does the price action go through this during the course of trading over a few days? Does it provide for a ‘pause’ or a true barrier (in either direction)? At the top of the channel, it would need to get above 16.90 or so for a breakout.
At this point, I’m looking to play the channel and take profits accordingly.
PINS
$PINS wasn’t on my watchlist at the beginning of the week, but on one of my scanners, I saw that it was squeezing across multiple timeframes, from daily on down to 10 minutes. And, this is also a ticker that has done me well in the past, so why not again?
After the last earnings report scared the price for a huge gap up around Halloween, the daily chart shows a retracement filling the gap and then bouncing back up to the intraday high the day after earnings. For more than a month, it has been consolidating around that line and looks to be ready to run again.
As it moved down around its 78.6% retracement today, I picked up a position for the next run. The hourly chart shows it falling over the last few sessions, but then, so did a number of tickers. It held up well relative to the fibs, and after touching the low, it finished the day at the 100.0% retracement.
I’m looking for it to get to the next level (161.8 – or about $78.25), but will be paying attention to the psychological barriers between, particularly the $75 mark.
SURF
$SURF was another that was not on my watchlist, but it was brought up by a colleague as a possibility. And, after looking at the chart, it looked like an interesting play. And then, after looking at the chart, I took a look at its fractal energy, and in every time frame I looked at (weekly, daily, 4 hour, 2 hour, 1 hour, 30 minute, 15 minute, 3 minute, 1 minute), this ticker had plenty of energy, signaling a good chance of a run in some direction. The question is always, what direction?
The daily chart shows a long upward run since the lows in March, with spikes up and consolidation periods mixed in, spiking up and hitting its 52 week high a few days before Christmas. Since then, it has entered one of its regular consolidation periods.
Now, before looking at the fractal energy, I was looking at this for maybe something in a couple of weeks, as its consolidation periods seem to be 2-3 weeks on average during its run. However, the energy implied a much shorter consolidation period this time around.
The hourly chart shows a support/resistance line around the 78.6 ext (9.48) that this played around prior to the last spike and during the first could days of this year. But, one of the keys here is it holding the 200 hour SMA line, which served as its support today.
To fight time decay, I entered with a position expiring in April, which should be more than enough time for it to make its move. If it keeps with its typical trending, that will happen before the end of January. However, with the energy, it may be sooner.
Setting Up:
ACB
$ACB finished the day above a key set of resistance lines (combo retracement/extension) at 9.55. As long as this holds, it becomes solid support and a base for it to shoot higher. The next strong resistance (double line) is at about 10.20.
DBX
$DBX looks to have settled in around the 61.8 extension after its recent decline off its 52 week highs. If this holds, I look for a pop up to 23.50 in its next leg. But, I’m also keeping an eye on the 21.77 mark as a potential stop-loss.
DGLY
Since saying that I was looking to potentially take my losses in $DGLY and look at a re-entry later, it has seemingly taken that as a challenge to get me to hold on. First, it was holding a line. And now, in this first couple of days in 2021, it has been on a steady rise, though it did pull off its two-day high in the last hour today, but still finished higher than any previous hour today.
For this, the 61.8 retracement at 2.80 is the next target for it to break through. How it does here will decide what I will do. If it cannot make it through, time to take my lumps. If it does make it through, it continues to string me along.
FISV
Though showing a little bit of a life, $FISV isn’t performing. I’m looking for my best possible exit to minimize loss at this point. (After realizing this was likely a loss, my plan was to move this loss to 2021, as it would likely be better for me from a tax perspective.) Once I am out, this may go back on the watchlist.
ON
$ON has been good to me. I actually have two positions in this. For the shorter-term position, I’ve already taken 1/3 of my holdings off the board, locking in guaranteed profit. Now, I’m looking for maximizing my profit within my strategy.
Right now, it is between two key sets of fib lines, and it closed solidly above the psychological mark of $33.00. The $34 mark is the next key level up, and I plan on selling the rest of my short-term positions there for a healthy win.
I also see this as having even more upside, which is why I’ve already ‘re-entered’ with a longer-term position, targeting a jump above 36 in the upcoming months. As I close out the positions set to expire soon, I’ll be playing with house money for the next run up.
SNAP
$SNAP looks as if it is getting ready to get back up to the top of its current channel again. It closed the day above key areas, including the psychological barrier of $50. It looks to be ready for taking that next step and potentially challenging the top of the channel (about 53.91).
SRNE
After challenging the bottom of its channel for several days and maintaining support, it appears that $SRNE is ready to rise back to the top of is channel (or maybe more). [Top of the channel is at a double fib line at 8.39.]