Options Portfolio Update – 2021-01-18
Current Long Options Swing Portfolio: $DBX, $ED, $ZNGA
Newly Added: $KALA, $PCG, $SOLO
Profits Taken: $SRNE
Stop-Loss Activated: $SPY
Day Trade: NONE
$DBX, $ED, $SRNE, $ZNGA, $KALA, $PCG, $SOLO, $SRNE
It has been a few days since I’ve provided updates to my portfolio. $SRNE spiked up and I captured profits. I also found good entries for a few more. I also made a boneheaded play with $SPY last week, a day after making a good, quick play on it.
Boneheaded Play of the Week:
In short, I got too greedy instead of taking what was given to me. I was looking for the $SPY to go down, which it did for a short while. I was looking to hit a grand slam while no one was on base, and I not only whiffed, but I think the bat flew into a dugout.
The biggest problem was that I really didn’t get into this with an actual plan. Without a plan, I was basing what I was doing mostly on emotion and greed. I set the target too far out and it was never hit. And, then, the market went in the opposite direction that day and never looked back and I was forced to take a big loss on it.
Now, the one positive is that I only entered with a half position, which limited overall risk. But, even though I knew this was a lottery play, I should still have had a plan and stuck too it.
Plan your trade. Trade your plan.
Day Trade:
NONE
Taking Profits:
SRNE
$SRNE received a lot of attention on Thursday and Friday, driving up the price of the stock. This activity pushed it past my target, activating my sell order for a nice 30% win.
Though I could have made more if I had stayed in the play, I’m not worried about that. Most of the time when something hits my profit target and I take it, it tends to be around the high of the day. This was an exception to that, where it shot up afterward. But, that is not a reason to change my approach.
Activating Stop Loss
NONE
Holdings
DBX
$DBX had a rough last half of the week, but it is still in green territory. As that news is absorbed, I see it continuing on its path upward.
However, I’ll be watching more closely and may revise my profit target downward should I see momentum is truly stalled for a while. If that would be the case, best to take a little profit, use the money elsewhere, and come back to this when it is ready.
ED
I picked up $ED knowing that it may be a bit slower to develop. So, I picked up options at a date a little further out to reduce some of the time decay, at least in the shorter term.
69.85 is a key fib level, so looking for it to regain that and use it as support going forward. Primary target is 78.50, with an intermediate target of 75, which are the next two key fib areas on my chart.
KALA
I picked up $KALA a touch under the 23.6% retracement on Thursday, and even with a little weakness on Friday, it held that line.
7.70 will be a key line to get through, as this serves as a ‘double resistance’ line, based on two separate retracements. Once through that, my target is at 8, right below the 61.8% of the longer of the retracements from back in October.
PCG
$PCG is a channel play with a potential breakout. For this one, I was able to pick up enough contracts where the plan is to hold on to 25-50% of the contracts past the first profit target.
I picked this up around the bottom of what I thought was the current channel, but it fell a little further. However, it was still around the optimal spot from what I was seeing on the charts. Thursday made me a little nervous, but it came roaring back on Friday back into the green.
It held above a key resistance area around 12.15 on the day, and if it can get through and hold above 12.30, it can race to the top of the channel, a little under $13. From there, if volume is showing strength as it reaches that, I plan to hold 50% of the contracts at that point. However, if volume is not, I will only hold 25% at that point. 13.75 is my target above that.
SOLO
$SOLO is one of the stranger EV plays. Its primary focus is on vehicles mostly meant for short distance, low load, urban environments. Often touted as a delivery vehicle, I see it having other value too, such as kiosk-based rentals, with unattended kiosks around a city. Its biggest potential may be overseas.
With that said, it has been in squeeze within a channel for some time. Given the after-election focus on EV, among other things, this has a chance to move. I picked it up on a dip under a key set of fib support lines, and since then, it has held those lines. I look for a pop up, establishing a new channel higher than the last.
With that, my upper target is at 10.40 (161.8 extension of a previous run-up), which is also just under the 61.8 retracement in November. My stall target is around 9.60.
ZNGA
$ZNGA has been a tease. It came just short of hitting target on Thursday and then pulled back. And, then, late Friday it pulled back further.
I am still green on this play, and it should make another run at cracking 10 soon, likely this week. It is still consolidating some energy, and I’m looking for it to fire.
New Holdings
See above for $KALA, $PCG, and $SOLO