Options Watchlist – 2021-01-18
Weekly Watchlist: $AAPL, $DHI, $EXAS, $GOCO, $HBI, $IOVA, $NI, $NLS, $NOVA, $PINS, $SNAP, $SRPT, $TBPH
Others: $GILT, $SFIX
AAPL
$AAPL has been forming a bullish ascending triangle pattern since its high in early September, reaffirmed by its high in mid-December, with the upper bar around the $138 price tag.
Its higher lows are now being supported by a 161.8 extension from early November, as well as the 38-day EMA.
An entry point around 127 looks good, for a ride up to at least 137 at the top of the flag. Depending on the strength of conviction at the top, it may be worth a hold as it could bust through and get to new highs. But, when it does reach there, my plan would be to use trailing stops to lock it in should it want to consolidate some more.
EXAS
For $EXAS’s run-up this past year, it has been textbook fibs.
As the first daily chart shows, when looking at both the 9-month long fib extension, and the extension from its initial run-up almost a year ago, the lines match. And, at each step along the way, it has jumped to a fib, consolidated in that area, jumped again, etc.
The second daily chart shows a closeup of the recent action, where it hit the top fib and bounced, going into one of its regular consolidation cycles. Given its history over the past year, I’m looking for an entry slightly under 140, which is about where the 34D EMA will be when it is ready to bounce off that and move up, with a target around 165.
GOCO
$GOCO was an IPO in late July that faded until the end of November.
The first daily chart shows a double bottom around 10.00, and from there, it has been gaining strength and moving upward, and is currently around its first peak since the 2nd bottom.
A close up of the recent daily action shows it bouncing off the 38.2 retracement back down to the 23.6, which is also around its recent 78.6 extension. This should provide good support to consolidate and move up again.
When this does decide to move, it looks to move 20-30% or more in a week. Another dip down to the support (around 14.00 – targeting 14.25) would be a good entry. Immediate target would be around 16.25, if it stays in this channel. A breakout will see it run to 18.00
HBI
$HBI ran up for much of the year, but is off a bit from its high. It has been on my watchlist for a while. I missed the recent run-up, as it didn’t give me the entry I wanted. But, the chart is still good and it is still something pointing upward.
Prior to the last earnings in November, it gapped down big, and then stabilized right after earnings and went back up above its year-long 61.8% extension and has recently been gaining steam.
The current level is right around a strong resistance/support level (78.6 extension/61.8 retracement). A push under this will signal that it needs a little more time to consolidate. However, it appears to potentially have some staying power on the upper side, which could signal filling the gap from November, prepping it to climb back to 52-week highs.
For my play, I’m looking to enter around 15.50 (right in the middle of that support/resistance area), if I see positive price action and support. From there, I’ll be looking at a 17.50 target, with a 16.60 stall target.
NI
$NI sparked my interest on Friday. Since its drop about a year ago, it has been playing in a channel for much of that time.
The channel has a support around $22 (23.6% retracement) and resistance around $25 (50% retracement).
Given this action, and entry point around the low part of the channel, with a target around the high end, with the midpoint being a stall target (23.75) seems to be a fairly safe play. Should it break out to the upside, 26.30 is its next stop.
SRPT
$SRPT looks like a lotto play, but with better odds. It was hit with news the 1st week of January that gapped the stock WAAAYYYY down. (One trial being reset because the results weren’t significant.) It has other things in the pipeline, so this appears to be an over-reaction.
The daily chart shows that after the initial drop, it held well, meaning there does not appear to be much downside, and the options play is heavily weighted on the bullish side.
Getting in around 90 seems to be a steal, as this is likely to break through the 23.6 (102.50) in short order.
Others
DHI
I am still liking the setup for $DHI and will be watching this close on Tuesday. Still a chance that I can get a lucky pick-up on my option. But, given where it is on the chart, with a strong resistance/support line about where it is at, should it break through and hold, I’ll be re-adjusting my entry point and moving my target up to 73.50.
IOVA
$IOVA has enjoyed a recent run up since October after a consolidation that lasted more than 4 months. I’d like to see some sort of consolidation period at the current level before considering a chance to get in. The candle wicks are fairly long to the upside for multiple days. I’m not convinced that the shorts are ready to let this one run yet. But, it is worth the watch.
NLS
$NLS is currently in a channel. Would like to try to pick this up at its bottom around $18 before it makes another run up. The top of the channel is around 22.60, with upside back to its 52-week high after that (28.40).
NOVA
After reaching its 52-week intraday high (57.70), it has come down just above the 78.6% extension (46.60). It tends to consolidate for a week or so at those levels before trying the next step up. So, this may be a play to enter later this week.
PINS
$PINS is currently in a bit of a channel. A drop back down to $65, where it has solid support, would signify a good entry to make another run to the top of the channel, and maybe beyond.
SNAP
I played $SNAP for a nice win not too long ago, playing the channel. It broke above that channel and is not back down to the bottom of it (around 50.25). If it holds the 34D EMA here, I like this for a repeat, with maybe more upside than I tagged previously.
TBPH
$TBPH is another biopharma ticker. This one rebounded quickly toward its 52 week prior to the March market drop, but since then, steadily gave ground to its low in late September. It has since bounced up to the 23.6% (18.50) and has been zig-zagging around it for the past few months. I look to get this on the low end of the zig and try to sell on the high end of the zap (16.50 to 20.00), but also looking for a potential breakout on the high side to 21.
Considered – Not making the cut this week
GILT – Recent gap up – would like to see it fill the gap on the downside before I enter
SFIX – After 2 big candles plus a gap up in December that hasn’t been filled, I’m tentative in making a play for more upside on this one at present. However, there is strong support just above the gap at 52, and if it falls there and holds, we may see it run quickly up again.